Quantum Bayesian Networks

January 26, 2019

Quantum Computing Startups That are like the ghost of Jacob Marley in Dickens’s novel “A Christmas Carol”

Filed under: Uncategorized — rrtucci @ 8:52 pm

A Trumpian argument that I often hear from VCs interested in investing in quantum computing startups is that software-only startups like Artiste-qb.net are too risky, whereas startups that are trying to build hardware and a full software library for that hardware, are much less risky.

Huh? This is the type of illogical thinking that Trump, his MAGA supporters, and Fox News commentators often use, a type of thinking that I find totally inscrutable. It flies in the face of all available evidence and facts.

Microsoft, Google and Facebook were originally software-only companies.

Hardware is 100 times more risky and expensive to develop than software. If you are going to invest in a qc company that does hardware, you should expect, optimistically, to have to wait at least 5 years before it builds a product, and 10 years before it makes a profit. And hardware development often fails. You can’t bullshit Mother Nature. Also, you should be sure that the startup will be able to procure from all sources at least $100M investment in it’s first 5 years of operation, like Rigetti has. Otherwise, your baby startup will die of malnutrition. In contrast, software companies like Artiste-qb.net can make a profit almost from day 1, by doing non-quantum AI programming on the side.

Software companies are very nimble; they can pivot quickly, changing their business plan and product if the current one is not working. Hardware companies are tied to their hardware like Jacob Marley is to his ball and chain.

Take DWave as an example. Sorry if I get into trouble for stating the obvious, but DWave will NEVER be able to recoup the $200M+ dollars that have been invested mostly in its hardware. DWave is now trying mightily to rebrand itself as an AI services company, but how far can they run with that annealer ball and chain tied to their leg, in the very crowded AI field? It is highly questionable whether their annealer device ever showed any sufficient advantage over classical devices to make it commercially viable, and now a bumper crop of new qc companies has taken the limelight away from them. I was always supportive of Dwave to some extent; they did start the current avalanche of interest in commercial qc, for which I am grateful. But, as far as Dwave investors are concerned, it was a TOTAL loss for them.

Despite DWave’s cautionary tale, I still find a lot of VCs trying to fund the next Dwave. I won’t name names, but some of the hardware qc startups that have been funded recently seem to be following in DWave’s footsteps, except I doubt they will find as much funding. I think they will die of malnutrition. DWave got so much funding because it was the first.

Artiste-qb.net is a software-only company. This is a VIRTUE, you low IQ person who thinks otherwise. Besides, we already have a product on the market, http://www.Bayesforge.com, not just a vague promise of a product. What we need now are investors to help us ramp up the product. For these reasons, we are 1/100 times as risky an investment as a hardware qc startup.

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